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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms
Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Жанр: Penguin Group Издательство: Penguin Group Год: 2011 Страниц: 128 Дата загрузки: 21 августа 20132012-06-21
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In a climate when iconoclasm is the smartest intellectual stance — whether against bankers, traders, politicians, the energy industry, or journalists — one of today's most prominent rabble-rousers gives his quick-witted and snappy guide to questioning the status quo. With characteristic panache and brio, Taleb uses aphorisms to condense his rambunctious ideas and style. This paperback edition will serve as a perfect reference for anyone searching for the right questions to ask.
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Жанр: Penguin Group Издательство: Penguin Group Год: 2007 Страниц: 368 Дата загрузки: 10 декабря 20092012-08-23
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Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy – or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets – we hear an entrepreneur has ‘vision’ or a trader is ‘talented’, but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.
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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Автор: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Жанр: Penguin Group Издательство: Penguin Group Год: 2008 Страниц: 400 Дата загрузки: 15 апреля 20122009-06-21
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Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ‘impossible’. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and shows us how to face the world.
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